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Tis the season


With the year coming to a close, I would like to wish everyone a happy holiday season. This has been a year of many ups and downs in the mortgage industry but we have ended on a lot of positive notes—existing house sales have gone up 5.5% in November, rates have been at their lowest levels in recent memory, and consumer confidence in the market has been on the rise.  Leading economists see 2011 as being a year of further recovery and growth, with low interest rates continuing.  The IMF forecast for 2011 shows promise for investment and financial markets in the year to come, as indicated in the passage below…

The U.S. economy is recovering, thanks to unprecedented macroeconomic policy stimulus, emergency financial stabilization measures, and a modest cyclical upswing…The economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.7 percent in the three months to June, a slower pace than the 3.7 percent growth rate posted in the first quarter…On the upside, it is possible that business fixed investment could rebound faster from still-depressed levels…

…Monetary policy should remain accommodative because of muted inflation, subpar growth, and lingering financial strain. The Fed has maintained the policy rate at a record low while signaling that conditions are likely to warrant keeping the rate at exceptionally low levels for an extended period. In light of larger downside risks, the Fed’s recent decision to resume its purchases of government securities (using resources from maturing government-sponsored-enterprise debt and mortgage-backed securities in its portfolio) is appropriate. In the event that such risks materialize, policy responses could include a strengthened commitment to maintaining the ultra-low policy rate for an extended period, expanding asset purchases, and re- launching facilities to aid stressed markets.”

-        From the most recent IMF report “World Economic Outlook: Recovery, Risk, and Rebalancing,” pages 68-70

We are in for a great year and everyone at Millennium Mortgage is looking forward to assisting with your mortgage needs and building solid relationships through exceptional personal and professional services, and a dedication to your success.

I wish everyone my best and look forward to the year to come.

Sincerely,

Brent Platt
Founder/CEO of Millennium Mortgage Company

Good news for prospective home buyers

Embedded in the release of Existing Home Sales data yesterday was an update on the number of previously owned homes currently for sale on the market.

From the Release…

“Total housing inventory at the end of October fell 3.4 percent to 3.86 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 10.5-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 10.6-month supply in September.”

Although we did see a month over month improvement, these inventory numbers still confirm the unsettling trend of housing stock piling with nearly 4 million properties on the market today. The 8.4% year-over-year increase in inventory is especially bad news because the reported inventory is already historically very high and the 10.5 months of supply in October is far above normal.

Unfortunately, as anyone in this industry knows, concerns over existing inventory stockpiles are only half the problem – literally – shadow inventory could very well be a heavier shoe that has yet to drop. CoreLogic announced on Monday that they saw shadow inventory at just over 2 million units in August and total inventory over 6 million units.

From the Release…

“CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), a leading provider of consumer, financial and property information and business services, reported today that shadow inventory of residential property as of August 2010, reached 2.1 million units, or eight months worth of supply, up from 1.9 million, or a five-months’ supply, from one year earlier. With visible inventory remaining flat at 4.2 million units, the change in shadow inventory increased the total supply of unsold inventory by 3 percent. The total visible and shadow inventory was 6.3 million units in August, up from 6.1 million a year ago. The total months’ supply of unsold homes was 23 months in August, up from 17 months a year ago. Although it can vary and it depends on the market and real estate cycle, typically a reading of six to seven months is considered normal so the current total months’ supply is roughly three times the normal rate.”

This estimate is based largely on seriously delinquent and defaulted loans that likely will find their way onto the market as short sales or REO sales. Well over 6 million homes have received foreclosure notices since 2007. Our research indicates that as many as 3 million of those homes have already been foreclosed on, but have yet to be put on the market. Therefore, we believe this shadow inventory could be as high as 5 million units. If this is indeed the case,  it would extend months of supply to an all time high of over 12 months.

Based on the MBA mortgage purchase applications index, it appears there will be little increase in sales over the next few months (sales will probably remain in the low-to-mid 4 million SAAR range). That means we will see double digit months-of-supply for some time – and that suggests house prices will continue to fall in many markets.

Deficit targets: Social Security, mortgage breaks

WASHINGTON – In a politically incendiary plan, the bipartisan leaders of President Barack Obama’s deficit commission proposed curbs in Social Security benefits, deep reductions in federal spending and higher taxes for millions of Americans on Wednesday to stem a flood of red ink that they said threatens the nation’s very future.

The White House responded coolly, some leading lawmakers less so to proposals that target government programs long considered all but sacred.

Besides Social Security, Medicare spending would be curtailed. Tax breaks for many health care plans, too. Equally controversial, it would eliminate the current tax deduction that homeowners receive for the interest they pay on their mortgages.

The other proposals include:

• Increasing the gasoline tax by 15 cents a gallon to finance transportation programs.

• A three-year freeze in the pay of most federal employees and a 10 percent cut in the federal work force.

• Eliminating all congressional pet projects, known as earmarks.

Congressional Budget Office: http://www.fiscalcommission.gov/news
Pentagon’s budget also would be reduced in a plan designed to cut total deficits by as much as $4 trillion over the next decade.

The plan arrived exactly one week after elections that featured strong voter demands for economic change in Washington. But criticism was immediate from advocacy groups on the left and, to some extent, the right at the start of the post-election debate on painful steps necessary to rein in out-of-control deficits.

The plan would gradually increase the retirement age for full Social Security benefits – to 69 by 2075 – and current recipients would receive smaller-than-anticipated annual increases.

No one is expecting quick action on any of the plan’s pieces. Proposed cuts to Social Security

and Medicare are making liberals recoil. And conservative Republicans are having difficulty with options suggested for raising taxes. The plan also calls for cuts in farm subsidies and foreign aid.

The document was released by Democrat Erskine Bowles, a former Clinton White House chief of staff, and Republican Alan Simpson, a former senator from Wyoming.

Acknowledging the controversy involved, Simpson quipped to reporters: “We’ll both be in a witness protection program when this is all over, so look us up.” Said Bowles: “This is a starting point.”

Controversial or not, Bowles said serious action was demanded. He declared, “This debt is like a cancer that will truly destroy this country from within if we don’t fix it.”

The government reported separately Wednesday that the deficit for last month alone was $140.4 billion – and that was 20 percent lower than a year earlier. The red ink for all of the past fiscal year was $1.29 trillion, second highest on record, and this year is headed for the third straight total above $1 trillion.

Current deficits require the government to borrow 37 cents out of every dollar it spends.

Still, the plan was rejected as “simply unacceptable” by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-San Francisco, a top Obama ally.

The White House held its fire. Said spokesman Bill Burton, “The president will wait until the bipartisan fiscal commission finishes its work before commenting.”

The Social Security proposal would change the inflation measurement used to calculate cost-of-living adjustments for benefits, reducing annual increases. It immediately drew a withering assault from advocates for seniors, who are already upset that there will be no inflation increase for 2011, the second straight year.

“Balancing the budget on the backs of America’s seniors is completely unacceptable,” said Rep. Judy Chu, D-El Monte. “This recession already forced local governments to slash services for seniors across the country – at a time they’re already struggling. Cutting the benefits they receive from Social Security only puts their economic security at even greater risk.

“The President’s fiscal commission is doing important work, but it’s disingenuous to try to decrease the national debt by `fixing’ Social Security problems that don’t exist. Social Security is separate from the budget and doesn’t add a penny to the deficit. I worry that those who say it’s broken simply want to break it themselves.”

The plan also would raise the regular Social Security retirement age to 68 by about 2050 and to 69 in 2075. The full retirement age for those retiring now is 66. For those born in 1960 or after, the full retirement age is now 67.

Better-off beneficiaries would receive smaller Social Security payments than those in lower earning brackets under the proposal, and the amount of income subject to Social Security taxes would be increased.

“The chairmen of the Deficit Commission just told working Americans to `Drop Dead,”‘ AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka said in a statement.

From the right, anti-tax activist Grover Norquist – whose opinions carry great weight among Republicans – blasted the plan for its $1 trillion in tax increases over the coming decade. But Bowles and Simpson say eliminating costly tax deductions could bring income tax rates way down.

For every $1 of new revenue, the plan demands $3 in spending cuts, and that was acceptable to panel member Tom Coburn, a Republican senator from Oklahoma. “If we do the cuts, I’ll go for it,” he said. “We may have to go for some revenues at some point.”

The entire commission is supposed to report a deficit-cutting plan on Dec. 1, but panel members are unsure whether they’ll be able to agree on anything approaching deficit cuts of the size proposed. And even if they could, any vote in Congress this year would be nonbinding, Simpson said.

The release of the plan follows midterm elections that gave Republicans the House majority and increased their numbers in the Senate. During the campaign, neither political party talked of spending cuts of the magnitude offered Wednesday, with Republicans proposing $100 billion in cuts to domestic programs passed each year by Congress – but with no specifics.

Wednesday’s proposal would leave Obama’s new health care overhaul in place, while greatly strengthening its cost control provisions, including a board with the power to make cuts in Medicare payments to providers.

For most Americans with job-based health coverage, the biggest change would be to limit or eliminate altogether the tax-free status of employer-provided health benefits, which would provide a stiff nudge to force people into cost-conscious insurance plans.

To deal with the rising costs of Medicare and Medicaid, the giant health care programs for seniors and low-income people, the proposal calls for limiting annual spending increases to no more than 1 percent above the growth rate of the economy.

It outlines a series of strategies to achieve that goal, including changing provider payments to reward quality instead of sheer volume, demanding rebates from drug companies that want to participate in Medicare and raising cost-sharing for Medicare recipients while also putting in place a limit on their out-of-pocket costs.

“It’s a very provocative proposal,” said a Republican panel member, Rep. Jeb Hensarling of Texas. “Some of it I like. Some of it disturbs me. And some of it I’ve got to study.”

The plan also calls for a major overhaul of both the individual income tax and the corporate tax systems with the idea of lowering overall tax rates, simplifying the tax code and broadening the taxpayer base.

For individuals and families, the proposal would eliminate a host of popular tax credits and deductions, including the child tax credit and the mortgage interest deduction. However, it would significantly reduce income tax rates. The top rate would drop from 35 percent to 23 percent.

The deduction that companies take for providing health insurance to their employees would be eliminated, but the corporate income tax rate would be reduced from 35 percent to 26 percent, and the government would stop taxing overseas profits of U.S.-based multinational corporations.
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Financial Security looking to be on the up

Americans with assets of more than $250,000 said they’re more financially secure today than a year ago, after a recovery in the stock market increased confidence that the worst effects of the recession are over, according to Bank of America Corp.

The Merrill Lynch Affluent Insights Quarterly, which surveyed 1,000 people with investable assets of at least $250,000 from Sept. 13 to Oct. 7, found that 41 percent said they’re better off this year compared with the same period last year. About 39 percent of Americans said they’re risk-averse about investing, down from 50 percent in the previous survey.

“The headline is people are feeling better,” Sallie Krawcheck, president of Bank of America’s Global Wealth & Investment Management unit, told Margaret Brennan on Bloomberg TV.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained about 23 percent in 2009 and 6 percent this year, compared with a 38 percent drop in 2008.

“There’s a very clear split in terms of how affluent Americans see their own personal financial fortunes and the larger U.S. economy,” Andy Sieg, head of retirement and philanthropic services for Bank of America, said in an interview. “They view their personal financial picture as being far rosier.”

About 78 percent of those surveyed are confident their economic circumstances will improve in 2011, the study said. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News earlier this month projected the unemployment rate will average 9.6 percent this year and 9.3 percent in 2011.

Women and Retirement

More women considered themselves conservative investors, with 44 percent favoring lower-risk investments, compared with 34 percent of men, the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank said. Six percent of women said they were aggressive investors, compared with 17 percent of men.

“This is something that we as an industry need to think through, particularly as investors are concerned about their ability to save enough for retirement,” said Krawcheck on a conference call discussing the results.

Sixty-one percent of those surveyed expect to retire later than planned, compared with 29 percent in January. During the past year, 20 percent of respondents used savings to meet short- term expenses, according to the bank.

Health Care Costs

Rising health care costs remain an issue for Americans, with 60 percent citing them as a top concern, down from 62 percent in an April survey, Merrill Lynch said. An estimated 47 percent of Americans born between 1948 and 1954 may not be able to afford basic expenses and uninsured health-care costs through retirement, according to the Washington-based Employee Benefit Research Institute.

Conditions have gotten better for owners of small businesses with 56 percent saying they saw improvements from the previous year. “You’ll see small business owners taking on risks as well,” Krawcheck said on BTV.

Senate Passes Small Business Bill

WASHINGTON—After an impasse of more than a month, the Senate on Thursday approved a small-business bill that includes measures aimed at boosting access to capital and tax credits to provide temporary financial relief.

Democrats hope the legislation will help show voters they are in control of managing the economic recovery, even though the current employment picture looks grim.

Both parties agree that renewed hiring by small businesses is crucial to any turnaround in the job market. Lawmakers say most job growth comes from small businesses.

The national jobless rate of 9.6% has remained stubbornly high despite repeated attempts by the Obama administration and Congress to foster job creation. This legislation is almost certain to be the last attempt by Democrats to prime the economic pump before the November midterm elections, even though many of the provisions included in the bill are unlikely to be enacted before the Nov. 2 vote.

President Barack Obama urged lawmakers to pass the legislation.

Senators voted 61-38 Thursday, with two Republicans—Sens. George LeMieux (R., Fla.) and George Voinovich (R., Ohio)—joining every Democrat in voting in favor of the bill.

The House must still vote to approve the bill before it is sent to Mr. Obama for his signature. House speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) said Thursday the House would likely act on the measure next week.

The centerpiece of the bill is the creation of a $30 billion lending facility that would direct taxpayer money to regional banks on the condition they lend it to small businesses. Unlike the emergency rescue package implemented at the height of the crisis in 2008, banks would have to volunteer to participate in this program.

The rate of interest they are charged on the public funds would depend on how much they increased their small business lending.

The bill also includes about $12 billion in tax breaks, including an immediate write-off of 50% of new equipment purchases in 2010 for small and large businesses. It would double, to $500,000, the amount of new investment that small businesses are allowed to expense in 2010 and 2011.

The legislation would allow self-employed people to deduct health-insurance costs for themselves and their families. It also removes employer-provided cellphones from a list of items that can be taxed as fringe benefits.

Although efforts to provide assistance to the small-business sector are generally passed with ease by lawmakers, this legislation has been stuck on the Senate floor for more than a month because of partisan rancor.

Initially, Republicans opposed the creation of the lending facility, drawing comparisons to the Troubled Asset Relief Program. A lengthy disagreement over what other measures Republicans would be allowed to hold votes on further delayed consideration of the bill.

Ultimately, the Democrats allowed the minority party just two votes: one on extending a biofuels tax credit by a year and another seeking to make permanent a research-and-development tax credit. Both were defeated Thursday morning.

Cautiously optimistic Fed holds rates fast

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his fellow colleagues said they have leeway to hold rates at record lows because inflation is likely to stay subdued because of “slack” in the economy.  Factories and other businesses are operating well below full throttle. Workers aren’t likely to see hefty pay raises any time soon. And companies are wary of jacking up prices because consumers haven’t shown signs of returning to their free-spending ways.  Once the economy is on firm footing, the Fed will need to start boosting rates to prevent inflation and bring policy closer to normal. Economists still think that is months away.  Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, was among analysts who said they thought Greece’s debt crisis is one reason why the Fed is proceeding with caution, even though it didn’t mention the debt crisis in its statement.

Nonetheless, signals are growing that the U.S. economy has turned a corner. Employers added a net total of 162,000 job in March, the most in three years. Americans’ confidence is rising, and they are spending more. Manufacturers are boosting production. And a rising number of companies — such as Ford, Caterpillar and UPS — are seeing their profits grow.  Given the economy’s improvements, Chris Rupkey, economist at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, expressed disappointment that the Fed didn’t send a signal that higher rates are on the way.  “We think they should have lifted their foot off the gas pedal a little,” he said.  A month ago, Rupkey thought the Fed would start boosting rates in June. But based on the Fed’s renewed pledge Wednesday to keep rates at record lows for an “extended period,” he now thinks August is the earliest it might happen.

The Fed provided no clues about when it will start shedding some of its vast portfolio of mortgage securities. Doing so would tighten credit by sopping up some of the unprecedented amount of money that was pumped into the economy during the financial crisis.  The Fed has bought $1.25 trillion of these securities to drive down mortgage rates and aid the housing market. Its challenge is to sell those assets in a way that doesn’t weaken home prices and jack up mortgage rates. There’s been disagreements within the Fed about the timing and method of such sales.  The Fed’s balance sheet has exploded, reflecting the central bank’s action to fight the financial crisis. It stood at $2.3 trillion for the recent week, more than double the level before the crisis struck.  In its statement, the Fed once again said the pace of the recovery will likely remain moderate. The Fed wants to see lower unemployment and consistent job growth before it considers a rate increase, analysts say.

The unemployment rate, now 9.7 percent, is expected to remain high. Neither economic growth nor job creation is expected to be robust enough to quickly drive the rate down.  “While I believe that the Fed will have to raise rates this year, unless the job market improves a lot more quickly than expected, that just may not happen,” said economist Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economics Advisors.

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the labor market is beginning to improve. Growth in household spending has picked up recently but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software has risen significantly; however, investment in nonresidential structures is declining and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts have edged up but remain at a depressed level. While bank lending continues to contract, financial market conditions remain supportive of economic growth. Although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be moderate for a time, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.  With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.

The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability.

In light of improved functioning of financial markets, the Federal Reserve has closed all but one of the special liquidity facilities that it created to support markets during the crisis. The only remaining such program, the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, is scheduled to close on June 30 for loans backed by new-issue commercial mortgage-backed securities; it closed on March 31 for loans backed by all other types of collateral.

Second Quarter 2010 National Delinquency Numbers

The second quarter, 2010 report shows that the delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one- to four-unit residential properties dropped to a seasonally adjusted rate of 9.85 percent of all loans outstanding as of the end of the quarter, a decrease of 21 basis points from the first quarter of 2010, and an increase of 61 basis points from one year ago.

Delinquency and foreclosure measures are broken out into loan type (prime, subprime, VA and FHA) and fixed and adjustable rate products. At each geographic classification, there are 7 measures: total delinquencies, delinquency by past due category (30-59 days, 60-89 days and 90 days and over), new foreclosures, foreclosure inventory and seriously delinquent. The total number of loans serviced each quarter, as compiled through the survey, is also included in the data. The NDS is one of the most recognized sources for residential mortgage delinquency and foreclosure rates. Based on a sample of more than 44 million mortgage loans serviced by mortgage companies, commercial banks, thrifts credit unions and others, NDS provides quarterly delinquency and foreclosure statistics at the national, regional and state levels.

New rules for Mortage Loan Originators (MLOs) and how this will affect you

The OCC, Federal Reserve Board, FDIC, OTS, FCA and NCUA (herein, the “Agencies”) published a final rule requiring employees of Agency-regulated institutions who act as residential mortgage loan originators (“MLOs”) to register with the Nationwide Mortgage Licensing System and Registry (“NMLS”) as required under the federal Secure and Fair Enforcement for Mortgage Licensing Act (the “SAFE Act”).  The Rule becomes effective on October 1, 2010.  However, the Agencies will publish a notice stating the date that the NMLS will be available to begin accepting federal registrations, and MLOs will have 180 days from such date to register.  The NMLS is not expected to be available to accept federal registrations before January 2011.  Institutions are encouraged to start gathering information and establishing the requisite policies and procedures immediately in an effort to be in compliance by the end of the 180 day period.

The Rule uses the more narrow SAFE Act definition of an MLO, and therefore, only an individual who both takes an application and offers or negotiates terms of a loan must register.  The Rule does not expressly exempt individuals engaging in loan modification activities.  However, it appears that the Agencies generally view individuals engaging solely in such activity as not taking new applications and therefore not meeting the definition of an MLO.  The Agencies emphasize that an individual’s activities, not his or her job title, are determinative in whether that individual must register.

An MLO must be federally-registered if that individual is an employee of (a) a depository institution, (b) any subsidiary owned and controlled by a depository institution and regulated by a federal banking agency, or (c) an institution regulated by the FCA.  The Rule’s definition of “depository institution” does not include bank or savings association holding companies or their non-depository subsidiaries.  Employees of these entities who act as MLOs are not covered by the federal requirement and, therefore, must comply with state requirements.  Additionally, those MLOs engaging in dual employment may be required to comply with both federal and state requirements.

The Rule requires an MLO to submit less information than state-licensed MLOs and does not impose educational or testing requirements either as a prerequisite to registration or for annual renewal.  However, the MLO must still submit fingerprints and authorize a criminal background check.  Responsibility for complying with the Rule’s requirements falls on both the individual MLO and the employing institution, and both the MLO and the employing institution must submit information to the NMLS for each registration to be complete.  Each Agency-regulated institution is also required to establish policies and procedures to ensure its employees’ compliance with the SAFE Act and the Rule.  The Rule anticipates that fees will be charged in connection with registration; however, the Agencies have not yet determined the amount of such fees and will provide an opportunity for public comment in the future.

FHA Proposes to Implement Policy Changes for Borrower Credit Scores and Seller Concessions

The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) published a Notice in the Federal Register on July 15, 2010 (Vol. 75, No. 135) announcing proposed policy changes to its single family programs.  Public comments on these changes will be accepted for a period of 30 days from the date of publication.
Under these changes, new borrowers applying for an FHA insured mortgage will need a minimum FICO score of 580 to qualify for a down payment of 3.5%.  Borrowers with FICO scores between 500 and 580 will have to make a down payment of 10%.  Borrowers with credit scores below 500 will no longer qualify.

The proposed changes would also reduce the current seller concessions permitted by FHA from 6% to 3%.  FHA believes that the current 6% limit on seller concessions exposes the FHA to excess risk by potentially driving up the cost of the home beyond its appraised value.  This change would also bring the FHA requirements in conformity with industry standards.  FHA also proposes to tighten underwriting standards for manually underwritten loans.
The new policy changes are designed to reduce financial risk to FHA and protect its capital reserves.

We Got It Done When The Banks Failed!

New Benefits for Military and other Federal Employees

New benefits for members of the military and certain other federal employees:

  • Members of the military and certain other federal employees serving outside the U.S. have an extra year to buy a principal residence in the U.S. and qualify for the credit. Thus, an eligible taxpayer must buy, or enter into a binding contract to buy, a principal residence on or before April 30, 2011. If a binding contract is entered into by that date, the taxpayer has until June 30, 2011, to close on the purchase. Members of the uniformed services, members of the Foreign Service and employees of the intelligence community are eligible for this special rule. It applies to any individual (and, if married, the individual’s spouse) who serves on qualified official extended duty service outside of the United States for at least 90 days during the period beginning after Dec. 31, 2008, and ending before May 1, 2010.